Disclaimer: General educational research only — not legal, tax or financial advice. Rules differ by state and by family. Talk to an estate planning attorney in your state before you act.
Estate Planning Data & Research → Chance of Dying Before 65 by State
Most people think of a will as something for retirement. Federal life tables show why that timing can be off. In the typical state, 14.5% of 40-year-olds will die before they reach 65 if 2022 death rates hold. In West Virginia it is 23.4%, close to 1 in 4.
This page shows, for every state and D.C., the chance that a 30-, 40- or 50-year-old dies before 65, calculated from the CDC’s U.S. State Life Tables.
A will matters at 40, not just at 70. See how a trust and a will differ.
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Cite this page URL when reusing findings. Not a substitute for official sources or professional advice.
Key findings
- In the median state, 14.5% of 40-year-olds won’t reach 65 at 2022 death rates (CDC/NCHS U.S. State Life Tables, 2022).
- The chance is highest in West Virginia (23.4%), Mississippi (22.1%), Kentucky (20.7%), Oklahoma (20.3%), Alabama (20.0%), Arkansas (20.0%).
- It is lowest in Utah (11.1%), Massachusetts (11.3%), Connecticut (11.6%), New Jersey (11.6%), Minnesota (11.7%), California (12.0%).
- From age 30, the median state is 16.4%, and West Virginia is 26.4%. From age 50 the median is 11.7%.
Chance of dying before 65 by state
| State | From age 30 (%) | From age 40 (%) | From age 50 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 22.3 | 20.0 | 16.0 |
| Alaska | 18.5 | 16.0 | 12.7 |
| Arizona | 17.6 | 15.5 | 12.2 |
| Arkansas | 22.0 | 20.0 | 16.2 |
| California | 13.4 | 12.0 | 9.7 |
| Colorado | 14.2 | 12.5 | 9.9 |
| Connecticut | 13.3 | 11.6 | 9.3 |
| Delaware | 17.7 | 15.7 | 12.2 |
| District of Columbia | 19.8 | 18.5 | 15.6 |
| Florida | 15.9 | 14.1 | 11.2 |
| Georgia | 18.0 | 16.1 | 13.1 |
| Hawaii | 13.7 | 12.6 | 10.2 |
| Idaho | 13.8 | 12.4 | 10.0 |
| Illinois | 15.7 | 14.1 | 11.5 |
| Indiana | 19.2 | 17.2 | 13.8 |
| Iowa | 15.3 | 14.0 | 11.4 |
| Kansas | 17.3 | 15.5 | 12.5 |
| Kentucky | 23.1 | 20.7 | 16.5 |
| Louisiana | 22.4 | 19.9 | 15.7 |
| Maine | 17.6 | 15.3 | 12.1 |
| Maryland | 15.0 | 13.3 | 10.7 |
| Massachusetts | 12.7 | 11.3 | 9.1 |
| Michigan | 17.1 | 15.3 | 12.3 |
| Minnesota | 13.1 | 11.7 | 9.4 |
| Mississippi | 24.4 | 22.1 | 17.7 |
| Missouri | 19.6 | 17.6 | 14.3 |
| Montana | 16.4 | 14.3 | 11.5 |
| Nebraska | 14.2 | 12.8 | 10.5 |
| Nevada | 17.1 | 15.3 | 12.3 |
| New Hampshire | 14.0 | 12.4 | 10.0 |
| New Jersey | 13.0 | 11.6 | 9.3 |
| New Mexico | 22.3 | 19.1 | 14.5 |
| New York | 13.4 | 12.1 | 9.7 |
| North Carolina | 18.4 | 16.3 | 13.1 |
| North Dakota | 15.9 | 14.0 | 10.7 |
| Ohio | 19.0 | 17.0 | 13.7 |
| Oklahoma | 22.3 | 20.3 | 16.5 |
| Oregon | 16.0 | 14.4 | 11.7 |
| Pennsylvania | 16.3 | 14.6 | 11.7 |
| Rhode Island | 13.5 | 12.2 | 9.8 |
| South Carolina | 20.2 | 17.9 | 14.2 |
| South Dakota | 16.4 | 14.2 | 11.2 |
| Tennessee | 22.3 | 19.9 | 15.9 |
| Texas | 15.9 | 14.5 | 11.9 |
| Utah | 12.4 | 11.1 | 8.8 |
| Vermont | 15.6 | 13.8 | 10.9 |
| Virginia | 15.5 | 13.9 | 11.3 |
| Washington | 14.5 | 13.1 | 10.7 |
| West Virginia | 26.4 | 23.4 | 18.6 |
| Wisconsin | 14.8 | 13.1 | 10.5 |
| Wyoming | 16.7 | 14.9 | 12.0 |
Source: CDC National Center for Health Statistics, U.S. State Life Tables, 2022 (National Vital Statistics Reports vol. 74, no. 12), total population. Calculated as 1 minus survivors at 65 divided by survivors at the starting age.
What this means if you’re planning
- Parents of young children need a will to name a guardian. Without one, a court decides who raises a minor. See who would raise the kids.
- Social Security may pay children a survivor benefit, but it doesn’t name a guardian or manage an inheritance. See children getting survivor benefits by state.
- Without a will, state law decides. See the cost of dying without a will by state and the intestacy gap.
- Incapacity is a risk too. A power of attorney and health care directive cover the years before death. See the incapacity gap.
Related: life events that make a will outdated · who will be your executor
Methodology
CDC/NCHS U.S. State Life Tables, 2022, total-population tables for the 50 states and D.C., downloaded from the official NCHS FTP site on Oct. 13, 2026. For each state, the chance of dying before 65 from age x is 1 − l(65)/l(x), where l is the number of survivors in the life table. Life tables are period tables: they apply 2022 death rates to a hypothetical group and do not predict any person’s future. The 2022 tables include COVID-19 deaths in that year. NCHS publishes no national table in this release, so the median state is shown instead of a U.S. figure.
What this doesn’t measure. Differences by sex, race, income or health within a state, or how many people in each state have a will.
Frequently asked questions
What is the chance a 40-year-old dies before 65?
In the median state, 14.5%, based on 2022 CDC state life tables. It ranges from 11.1% in Utah to 23.4% in West Virginia.
Is this a prediction for me?
No. It’s a population average at 2022 death rates. Your own odds depend on health, habits and other factors.
At what age should I make a will?
Any adult with children, a partner, property or accounts can benefit. Parents of minors need one to name a guardian.
Is this legal advice?
No. Talk to an estate planning attorney in your state.
Sources
Public-domain government sources only. Fetched 2026-10-13.
Data
- CDC National Center for Health Statistics, U.S. State Life Tables, 2022 (NVSR vol. 74, no. 12), state total-population tables: https://ftp.cdc.gov/pub/Health_Statistics/NCHS/Publications/NVSR/74-12/
Cite this data
Family Estate Guide, “Will You Need Your Will Before 65? Odds by State,” October 2026. https://familyestateguide.com/estate-planning-data/chance-of-dying-before-65-by-state/
You’re welcome to reuse the table with a link back to this page. The underlying government data is public.
Published October 13, 2026 by Family Estate Guide. Data vintage: CDC/NCHS U.S. State Life Tables, 2022. Editorial standards.