Disclaimer: General educational research only — not legal, tax or financial advice. Figures are estimates with the limits explained in the methodology. Verify with official sources and a qualified professional before making decisions.
Estate Planning Data & Research → The Estate Pipeline: About 700,000 Homes a Year Are Left Behind by an Owner With No Spouse
This page is a model, not a count. No government agency tracks how many homes are passed down each year. We built an estimate from official Census and CDC data, and every modeled number is labeled MODEL. The assumptions are listed below so anyone can check or rerun it.
When a married homeowner dies, the house usually goes to the surviving spouse, often automatically if they owned it together. When the owner is single, widowed or divorced, there’s no spouse to step in. The house has to go somewhere: to children, siblings, a partner, or whoever the will or state law names. Unless it’s titled in a living trust, a transfer-on-death deed or joint ownership with survivorship rights, that transfer usually runs through probate.
We estimated how many homes reach that point each year, in every state.
Own a home on your own? A living trust can keep it out of probate, and a will covers the rest. See whether you need a will, a living trust or both.
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Cite this page URL when reusing findings. Not a substitute for official sources or professional advice.
Key findings
- MODEL: About 697,500 homes a year are left behind by an owner-householder with no spouse in the home (likely range 592,900 to 802,200). That’s about 225 homes for every 1,000 deaths in the U.S.
- Observed (ACS): 35.9 million owner-occupied homes (±132,000) are headed by someone who isn’t part of a married couple. That’s 41.4% of all owner-occupied homes (±0.1 points). 14.7 million of those owners are 65 or older. This is the pool the model draws from.
- MODEL: Most of these homes are paid off. About 70% of the homes in the estimate are owned free and clear, 71% belonged to someone who lived alone, and 69% to someone 75 or older. Together they’re worth roughly $268 billion a year, with a median value of about $263,000 (owner-reported).
- MODEL: California (about 55,000 homes a year), Florida (51,100), Texas (45,900), New York (33,500) and Pennsylvania (32,500) have the most. California’s homes alone are worth about $48.8 billion a year in the model.
- MODEL: New Mexico (290 per 1,000 deaths), Michigan (272) and West Virginia (267) are highest relative to deaths. California (190), Alaska (196) and Washington (197) are lowest. New Mexico also has the second-highest observed share of unmarried owners (51.5%, after D.C.’s 58.6%).
- MODEL: For comparison, about 631,600 married owner-householders die each year. Those homes usually pass to a spouse first, then join this pipeline when the surviving spouse dies.
What the model does (in plain English)
- Take every owner-occupied home in the Census Bureau’s 2024 American Community Survey microdata and note the age and sex of the owner-householder, whether they’re part of a married couple, the home’s value and whether there’s a mortgage.
- Give each owner a chance of dying in the next year, using the CDC’s official life tables for their state, age and sex.
- Adjust those chances so each state’s total matches the deaths the Census Bureau actually counted from July 2024 to June 2025.
- Add up the expected deaths of owners who aren’t part of a married couple. That’s the number of homes left behind each year.
Model assumptions (read these before quoting a number)
- A1. Owners die at the same rate as everyone their age and sex in their state, after the calibration in step 3. Research generally finds that homeowners live longer than renters and unmarried people die younger than married people, and those effects pull in opposite directions. We don’t know the net effect, so we show a ±15% range around every count. That range is our assumption, not a statistical margin of error.
- A2. “Home left behind” means the householder owned it and had no spouse in the home. Unmarried partners, roommates and adult children who live there are counted as part of the household, but the model doesn’t know whether they’re on the deed.
- A3. The model doesn’t know how the home is titled. Some of these homes are already in a living trust, have a transfer-on-death deed, or are co-owned with survivorship rights, so they won’t need probate. We did not invent a probate share. Read the counts as homes whose ownership has to change hands, not as probate cases.
- A4. Home values are what owners told the Census Bureau, not appraisals or sale prices.
- A5. One home per household. Second homes, rentals and land owned by the person who died aren’t counted, so the model leaves out a lot of real estate that also passes at death.
- A6. The calibration factor (Census deaths ÷ deaths expected from 2022 life tables applied to 2025 population) ran from 0.777 in Florida to 0.908 in North Dakota. It’s below 1 everywhere. Likely reasons include lower death rates in 2024-25 than in 2022, when COVID deaths were still elevated, and migration (for example, healthy retirees moving to Florida). We don’t depend on the reason, because everything is scaled to the official death count. One side effect: owners and non-owners in a state get the same adjustment.
- A7. Mortality years are mixed: 2022 life tables, July 2024-June 2025 deaths, and 2024 survey data. We assume the age pattern of death didn’t change much between 2022 and 2025.
Full state table
Deaths are official Census Bureau estimates. Columns marked MODEL are Family Estate Guide estimates, with a ±15% assumption range. The last column is an observed ACS 2024 1-year estimate with its 90% margin of error.
| State | Deaths, Jul 2024-Jun 2025 (Census) | MODEL: homes left each year by an unmarried owner (range) | MODEL: per 1,000 deaths | MODEL: owned free and clear | MODEL: total home value | MODEL: median home value | Owner households that aren’t married couples (ACS, observed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 59,868 | 15,240 (12,960-17,530) | 254.6 | 72.1% | $3.6B | $178,000 | 43.7% ±0.7 |
| Alaska | 5,559 | 1,090 (930-1,250) | 195.8 | 65.4% | $0.4B | $299,000 | 40.3% ±2.0 |
| Arizona | 71,277 | 15,400 (13,090-17,710) | 216.0 | 63.3% | $6.4B | $335,000 | 43.4% ±0.7 |
| Arkansas | 36,638 | 8,730 (7,420-10,040) | 238.4 | 74.9% | $1.8B | $166,000 | 41.3% ±0.9 |
| California | 288,917 | 54,990 (46,740-63,240) | 190.3 | 62.9% | $48.8B | $700,000 | 39.3% ±0.3 |
| Colorado | 44,772 | 9,510 (8,090-10,940) | 212.5 | 63.0% | $5.7B | $470,000 | 39.1% ±0.7 |
| Connecticut | 32,417 | 7,510 (6,380-8,640) | 231.7 | 70.1% | $3.2B | $325,000 | 41.9% ±1.1 |
| Delaware | 10,882 | 2,850 (2,420-3,270) | 261.5 | 71.3% | $1.2B | $315,000 | 43.3% ±1.9 |
| District of Columbia | 4,820 | 1,210 (1,030-1,390) | 251.4 | 57.3% | $0.9B | $610,000 | 58.6% ±2.6 |
| Florida | 227,304 | 51,140 (43,470-58,810) | 225.0 | 70.8% | $21.2B | $300,000 | 44.3% ±0.4 |
| Georgia | 97,815 | 20,240 (17,200-23,270) | 206.9 | 64.1% | $6.2B | $250,000 | 41.3% ±0.6 |
| Hawaii | 12,607 | 2,630 (2,230-3,020) | 208.6 | 67.9% | $2.7B | $850,000 | 43.5% ±1.5 |
| Idaho | 16,795 | 3,590 (3,050-4,130) | 213.7 | 68.3% | $1.5B | $371,000 | 35.7% ±1.1 |
| Illinois | 114,226 | 28,110 (23,890-32,320) | 246.1 | 70.9% | $7.7B | $215,000 | 43.1% ±0.5 |
| Indiana | 71,087 | 17,940 (15,250-20,630) | 252.4 | 67.8% | $4.1B | $197,000 | 42.2% ±0.7 |
| Iowa | 33,521 | 7,440 (6,320-8,560) | 221.9 | 75.0% | $1.5B | $175,000 | 40.2% ±0.8 |
| Kansas | 29,465 | 6,960 (5,910-8,000) | 236.1 | 75.6% | $1.6B | $189,000 | 38.3% ±1.0 |
| Kentucky | 53,065 | 13,410 (11,390-15,420) | 252.6 | 74.0% | $2.8B | $170,000 | 42.5% ±0.8 |
| Louisiana | 49,112 | 12,570 (10,680-14,460) | 255.9 | 74.6% | $2.9B | $177,000 | 46.6% ±1.0 |
| Maine | 16,802 | 4,100 (3,490-4,720) | 244.0 | 73.5% | $1.5B | $300,000 | 42.0% ±1.4 |
| Maryland | 53,646 | 12,210 (10,370-14,040) | 227.5 | 60.3% | $5.3B | $350,000 | 43.4% ±0.7 |
| Massachusetts | 59,636 | 12,790 (10,870-14,710) | 214.5 | 68.5% | $8.3B | $500,000 | 40.5% ±0.8 |
| Michigan | 104,678 | 28,450 (24,180-32,720) | 271.8 | 73.5% | $7.2B | $200,000 | 43.9% ±0.6 |
| Minnesota | 50,505 | 10,650 (9,050-12,250) | 210.9 | 71.4% | $3.5B | $280,000 | 39.6% ±0.6 |
| Mississippi | 35,775 | 9,450 (8,040-10,870) | 264.3 | 79.0% | $1.7B | $130,000 | 46.9% ±1.2 |
| Missouri | 68,200 | 16,220 (13,780-18,650) | 237.8 | 70.1% | $3.9B | $200,000 | 41.4% ±0.7 |
| Montana | 11,438 | 2,390 (2,030-2,750) | 209.3 | 71.4% | $1.1B | $320,000 | 39.8% ±1.5 |
| Nebraska | 18,260 | 4,140 (3,520-4,760) | 226.9 | 77.5% | $1.0B | $200,000 | 37.3% ±1.0 |
| Nevada | 29,460 | 6,190 (5,270-7,120) | 210.3 | 57.4% | $2.7B | $400,000 | 45.8% ±1.0 |
| New Hampshire | 14,078 | 3,000 (2,550-3,450) | 213.1 | 69.6% | $1.3B | $375,000 | 39.1% ±1.4 |
| New Jersey | 74,976 | 16,210 (13,780-18,640) | 216.2 | 70.8% | $7.3B | $399,000 | 38.0% ±0.6 |
| New Mexico | 22,120 | 6,410 (5,450-7,370) | 289.7 | 72.9% | $2.0B | $250,000 | 51.5% ±1.3 |
| New York | 160,263 | 33,450 (28,430-38,470) | 208.7 | 73.1% | $17.9B | $375,000 | 43.8% ±0.5 |
| North Carolina | 107,917 | 24,550 (20,870-28,230) | 227.5 | 68.7% | $7.5B | $250,000 | 40.9% ±0.6 |
| North Dakota | 7,130 | 1,440 (1,230-1,660) | 202.2 | 80.4% | $0.3B | $200,000 | 39.3% ±1.9 |
| Ohio | 127,554 | 31,500 (26,780-36,230) | 247.0 | 70.2% | $7.2B | $180,000 | 42.8% ±0.5 |
| Oklahoma | 46,044 | 10,430 (8,860-11,990) | 226.5 | 75.4% | $2.3B | $165,000 | 41.7% ±0.7 |
| Oregon | 42,098 | 9,120 (7,750-10,490) | 216.7 | 64.3% | $4.3B | $400,000 | 40.4% ±0.7 |
| Pennsylvania | 137,689 | 32,530 (27,650-37,410) | 236.2 | 75.2% | $8.4B | $200,000 | 42.1% ±0.5 |
| Rhode Island | 10,325 | 2,250 (1,910-2,580) | 217.6 | 67.4% | $1.2B | $420,000 | 42.5% ±2.1 |
| South Carolina | 59,117 | 14,060 (11,950-16,170) | 237.9 | 69.8% | $4.3B | $225,000 | 42.0% ±0.7 |
| South Dakota | 8,694 | 1,800 (1,530-2,070) | 206.7 | 78.2% | $0.4B | $220,000 | 37.6% ±1.7 |
| Tennessee | 80,811 | 19,130 (16,260-22,000) | 236.7 | 72.1% | $6.1B | $250,000 | 41.6% ±0.7 |
| Texas | 232,492 | 45,920 (39,030-52,800) | 197.5 | 74.5% | $13.9B | $230,000 | 37.8% ±0.4 |
| Utah | 21,987 | 4,940 (4,200-5,690) | 224.9 | 68.2% | $2.6B | $425,000 | 32.2% ±1.1 |
| Vermont | 6,748 | 1,650 (1,400-1,890) | 244.1 | 64.7% | $0.6B | $300,000 | 44.9% ±1.9 |
| Virginia | 78,253 | 17,960 (15,270-20,660) | 229.5 | 67.3% | $6.9B | $300,000 | 40.4% ±0.6 |
| Washington | 66,138 | 13,030 (11,080-14,980) | 197.0 | 66.0% | $7.7B | $485,000 | 38.2% ±0.6 |
| West Virginia | 24,841 | 6,620 (5,630-7,610) | 266.5 | 82.0% | $1.2B | $140,000 | 44.1% ±1.0 |
| Wisconsin | 58,006 | 12,870 (10,940-14,800) | 221.8 | 72.1% | $3.7B | $240,000 | 39.6% ±0.6 |
| Wyoming | 5,775 | 1,510 (1,290-1,740) | 262.2 | 74.8% | $0.5B | $250,000 | 39.3% ±2.4 |
| United States (sum of 50 states + DC) | 3,101,603 | 697,500 (592,900-802,200) | 224.9 | 70.2% | $268.2B | $263,000 | 41.4% ±0.1 |
The U.S. row is the sum of the 50 states and D.C.
What this means for your family
- If you own a home in your name alone, decide now how it passes. A living trust, a transfer-on-death deed (where your state allows one), or joint ownership with survivorship rights can move a house without probate. A will still works, but it usually goes through probate. See avoiding probate and probate costs by state.
- If you’re married, plan for the second death. The house may pass smoothly to your spouse, but it joins this pipeline when they die.
- If your partner lives with you and isn’t on the deed, a will or trust is the only way to make sure they can stay. See the intestacy gap.
- Paid-off homes are where the money is. Most homes in the model have no mortgage, so the house is often the largest thing a single owner leaves.
Methodology
Sources and steps.
- Deaths: U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2025 state population estimates (NST-EST2025-ALLDATA, column DEATHS2025 = July 1, 2024 to June 30, 2025). U.S. total 3,101,603.
- Population by age and sex: Census Bureau, Vintage 2025 civilian population by single year of age and sex (SC-EST2025-AGESEX-CIV), used only to calibrate.
- Death rates: CDC/NCHS, U.S. State Life Tables, 2022 (NVSR vol. 74 no. 12), male and female tables for each state. We used the central death rate m(x) = dx ÷ Lx for single ages 0-99, and the pooled rate for ages 85+ in the calibration.
- Owners: ACS 2024 1-year PUMS, householders (RELSHIPP = 20) in owner-occupied homes (TEN = 1 with a mortgage, TEN = 2 free and clear), weighted by WGTP. “No spouse” = household type HHT ≠ 1 (anything other than a married-couple household). 988,684 sample households.
- Calibration: k(state) = official deaths ÷ Σ population(age, sex) × m(age, sex). Each owner’s one-year death probability is m(age, sex, state) × k(state).
- Outputs: expected homes = Σ WGTP × probability over unmarried owners. Free-and-clear, lived-alone (HHT 4 or 6), 75+ shares and the value-weighted median come from the same weights.
- Observed base: ACS 2024 1-year table B25011. Unmarried owners = other family (B25011_008) + nonfamily (B25011_017), with MOEs from the Census sum formula; 65+ = B25011_012 + _016 + _021 + _025.
Why a ±15% band instead of a margin of error. Sampling error in the PUMS is small next to the uncertainty in assumption A1, so we show an assumption band.
What it isn’t. This isn’t a count of probate cases, inheritances or home sales. There’s no consistent national count of probate filings, so we didn’t estimate one.
Sources
- Census Bureau, Vintage 2025 state totals (deaths): https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/state/totals/NST-EST2025-ALLDATA.csv
- Census Bureau, Vintage 2025 civilian population by age and sex: https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2020-2025/state/asrh/sc-est2025-agesex-civ.csv
- CDC/NCHS, U.S. State Life Tables, 2022 (NVSR 74-12 files): https://ftp.cdc.gov/pub/Health_Statistics/NCHS/Publications/NVSR/74-12/
- Census ACS 2024 1-year PUMS API: https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs1/pums
- Census ACS 2024 1-year table B25011: https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs1/groups/B25011.html
- Model code and inputs: available on request
Related research: the great wealth transfer tracker shows how much U.S. household wealth is held by people 70 and older. It is national only, not a count of homes.
FAQ
Is this an official count?
No. It’s a Family Estate Guide model built from official Census and CDC data. The assumptions are listed above.
Will my house have to go through probate?
It depends on how it’s titled and on your state’s rules. A house in your name alone, passed by will, usually goes through probate. A house in a living trust, with a transfer-on-death deed (where allowed) or held jointly with survivorship rights usually doesn’t.
What happens to my house if I die without a will and I’m not married?
It goes to your relatives under your state’s intestacy law, usually children first, then parents and siblings. A partner who isn’t on the deed generally gets nothing.
Does a will keep my house out of probate?
No. A will says who gets the house, but in most cases the will itself goes through probate. To skip probate, use a trust, a TOD deed or joint ownership.
Why does New Mexico rank so high?
It has an older homeowner population and a high share of homeowners who aren’t married (51.5% observed, second only to D.C.), so more deaths involve a single owner.
Cite this data
Family Estate Guide. “The Estate Pipeline: About 700,000 Homes a Year Are Left Behind by an Owner With No Spouse” (model). October 2026. https://familyestateguide.com/estate-planning-data/estate-pipeline/. Inputs: U.S. Census Bureau PEP Vintage 2025 and ACS 2024; CDC/NCHS U.S. State Life Tables 2022.
Published October 6, 2026 by Family Estate Guide. Model built October 2026. Data vintage: PEP Vintage 2025, ACS 2024 1-year, NCHS 2022 state life tables. Editorial standards.